Elizaville Partners Monthly Letter November 2015

Elizaville Partners Monthly Letter

December 8, 2015

To: Limited Partners in Elizaville Partners LP
From: Max G. Ansbacher, President, Ansbacher Investment Management, Inc., the General Partner
            Chuck Ansbacher, Principal, Ansbacher Investment Management, Inc.
Subject: November 2015 Performance

Elizaville Partners had an average net estimated gain in November of 0.93%. This brought its average year-to-date gain to 20.06%.
The S&P 500 Stock Index gained 0.05% in November for a year-to-date gain of 1.04%.   

In March of this year, we wrote that It’s Tough to Make Money in 2015 With a Strategy That Worked in 2014. In this post, we stated:

In 2014 we had magnificent trends which would go on for days, mostly on the upside, bringing profits to anyone who was on board. In 2015 a "trend" is anything that lasts more than an hour before completely changing course and trashing anyone who dared to follow it.

At the time, some questioned the veracity of this statement, noting that the “buy the dip” strategy that had worked quite well since 2009 was still paying off just fine. Now that we’re closing in on the end of the year, we know that anyone “buying the dip” on the S&P 500 has been left accumulating shares that never went anywhere. But as an investor in 2015, if all your portfolio did was go nowhere, you should consider yourself lucky.

Predicting how the market will react to news events has proven equally vexing. November was no better example of this phenomenon. Take the tragedy that unfolded in Paris on the night of November 13th as an example. Up until that point, the market had been in a down-trend, down -2.71% for the month. Instead of sending the market even lower, which one might expect a terrorist attack to do, the horrific event set off a rally that saw the index gain 3.27%–its best weekly gain of the entire year. Why markets reacted this way is anyone’s guess, but if you made your money by guessing, there’s a good chance you would have guessed wrong.

For many whose fortunes rise and fall on making market predictions, 2015 has been a difficult nut to crack. Some of the largest names in investing are having very difficult years due to bets gone sour and predictions gone awry. We mention this not to take pleasure in the misfortune of others, but simply to point out that while the S&P is basically flat on the year, this has nonetheless been a challenging market, and a challenging year for even the finest of investors. With one month left to go, we are pleased that our strategy has stood up to the many challenges the market threw at it, and are grateful that just as in 2014 and the many years before, our strategy worked in 2015.